depicted in the charts below, I'm starting to respect the 50 week
Moving Average (MA) (10 month MA on the monthly chart) a whole lot
more. You'll see the 50week MA as a yellow line on the first chart
below (red in the live chart weekly and similar red line on monthly
chart). I don't have a
clue which way this is really going to go. When that's the case, I try
to simplify. Currently, I'm respecting
that I may be operating in a Bear Market (below the MA's). If it gets
toward that MA and fails, that's when the SP500 potentiallytakes
a real haircut back to the old highs of 2000 & 2007...high 1500's.
Gets over it again and potential for, perhaps, somewhat higher. Who knows...it's all a grand
game! One day...one week at a time because things change!
January was the worst January for all of stock market history (since
1896). Stocks started out similarly in 2008. This year's price action
broke the lows from Fall of 2015 and the Fall of 2014 (not good) but
have since recovered. There were backtests by price to the 50 week MA
(yellow line) in November 2000 and May 2008 prior to their Bear
Markets. Was the Fall of 2015 a backtest for this go around and that's
it? I dunno. No one does. Thus, while below that moving average, I
will respect that bad things tend to happen below it and defense is the name of the game until things change.
But the long term mid-channel trendline is involved.
Aren't there bigger concerns like Social Security and Medicare viability. Hard to take someone seriously when they insist that the "biggest threat to America is the weather".
Risk happens fast!
A bit overdone. Can't even say whether that was the momentum low yet...let alone the price low.
Shouldn't be in any rush here as we're below the 50 week MA and volatility is scorching.
Waiting for market dust to settle some. Fear and volatility measures very high (below). It will probably be very whippy if 2011 is any comparison as MA's catch up. We'll see.
Glad I was out. Hope you didn't get hurt. Patience here.
Just a brief youtube that I saw on Mrs. Clinton...not gonna ruin a perfectly good weekend looking for more. Besides, the whole server thing will entertain us in the months to come. You know it's real when the Dem side is scrambling to repackage Biden and Gore. Come on!
Record haul on taxes...and some candidates propose still more tax increases? Will there ever be enough to satiate Washington's largesse?
And, just like that....Glo-bull warming is over? The new Ice Age drumbeat begins. Headline..."Scientists stunned to learn that the Sun is what heats the Earth". LOL Now, the press will start telling us that we should "Be afraid. Be very afraid!" Where's Al Gore and his Glo-bull warming buddies? They'll save us! Will President Obama keep claiming that global warming is our nation's biggest threat?
OMG...I can't wait for scientists to call for man to produce more CO2 as "The" cure. I'm already doing my part...I plan to breathe real heavy and fart a lot, too. Join me and rally for "Toot to save the planet!"
Generally, there is no such thing as an "overreaction" to a situation. Whenever something seems like an overreaction, it means that we are reacting to something in the past on top of what's happening in the present. The extreme of this situation is traumatic stress, in which painful experiences in the past intrude in our perceptions of safety in the here and now.
This has been a long up run. However, a monthly MACD cross indicates that we've probably (not definitely) entered a higher risk area of this market run.
Carefully choose how you want to participate from this point forward.
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