01 April 2016

APRIL 2016

27th ==

  • They forgot "man-made global warming."
 
 
1st  ==


  • Hmm..economy or Central Banks?

20 February 2016

20 January 2016

JANUARY 2016

31st

As depicted in the charts below, I'm starting to respect the 50 week Moving Average (MA) (10 month MA on the monthly chart) a whole lot more.  You'll see the 50week MA as a yellow line on the first chart below (red in the live chart weekly and similar red line on monthly chart).  I don't have a clue which way this is really going to go.  When that's the case, I try to simplify.  Currently, I'm respecting that I may be operating in a Bear Market (below the MA's).  If it gets up toward that MA and fails, that's when the SP500 potentially takes a real haircut back to the old highs of 2000 & 2007...high 1500's.  Gets over it again and potential for, perhaps, somewhat higher.  Who knows...it's all a grand game!  One day...one week at a time because things change!

January was the worst January for all of stock market history (since 1896).  Stocks started out similarly in 2008.  This year's price action broke the lows from Fall of 2015 and the Fall of 2014 (not good) but have since recovered.  There were backtests by price to the 50 week MA (yellow line) in November 2000 and May 2008 prior to their Bear Markets.  Was the Fall of 2015 a backtest for this go around and that's it?  I dunno.  No one does.  Thus, while below that moving average, I will respect that bad things tend to happen below it and defense is the name of the game until things change. 

  






20th


05 October 2015

OCTOBER 2015

15th ==

  • Moment of truth not far away.



12th ==

  • Busted channel line and 50 week MA as possible resistance.

  • Extreme NYMO highs followed by lower SP lows?


5th ==

Not a sign of recovery after 6 yrs...Never before happened...ever!  Negative interest rates next?


24 September 2015

SEPTEMBER 2015

24th ==

Looking pretty similar so far...


05 August 2015

AUGUST 2015

31st ==

  • First monthly close below the 12 SMA since 2011.
  • But the long term mid-channel trendline is involved.
  • Always interesting.


  • Aren't there bigger concerns like Social Security and Medicare viability.  Hard to take someone seriously when they insist that the "biggest threat to America is the weather".




25th ==
  • Risk happens fast!
  • A bit overdone.  Can't even say whether that was the momentum low yet...let alone the price low.
  • Shouldn't be in any rush here as we're below the 50 week MA and volatility is scorching.
  • Waiting for market dust to settle some.  Fear and volatility measures very high (below).  It will probably be very whippy if 2011 is any comparison as MA's catch up.  We'll see.
  • Glad I was out.  Hope you didn't get hurt.  Patience here.






16th ==

Just a brief youtube that I saw on Mrs. Clinton...not gonna ruin a perfectly good weekend looking for more.  Besides, the whole server thing will entertain us in the months to come.  You know it's real when the Dem side is scrambling to repackage Biden and Gore.  Come on!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbnKGopT0Uc


11th ==





5th ==

If history is any guide....not a low risk environment by this measure.  SP500 currently in its tightest six month range since 1950.  It can pop up or down...dunno!  But, it's storing energy for a move.


Ms. Market is always so darned alluring...




07 July 2015

JULY 2015

17th ==

Uggh...
http://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/622119090308542464/photo/1


Record haul on taxes...and some candidates propose still more tax increases?  Will there ever be enough to satiate Washington's largesse?





12th ==

And, just like that....Glo-bull warming is over?  The new Ice Age drumbeat begins.  Headline..."Scientists stunned to learn that the Sun is what heats the Earth".  LOL  Now, the press will start telling us that we should "Be afraid.  Be very afraid!"  Where's Al Gore and his Glo-bull warming buddies?  They'll save us!  Will President Obama keep claiming that global warming is our nation's biggest threat?

OMG...I can't wait for scientists to call for man to produce more CO2 as "The" cure.  I'm already doing my part...I plan to breathe real heavy and fart a lot, too.  Join me and rally for "Toot to save the planet!"

What a crock.  



7th ==


Going back to bed...LOL







08 June 2015

JUNE 2015

30th ==





28th ==



9th ==

This didn't end well last time...
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  • On a positive note...
















8th ==

  • Good thing is that the numbers are at lows.
  • Cyclically speaking, the numbers are at lows.  Sobering.


05 May 2015

MAY 2015

31st ==

  • Global warming precedes global cooling...and around and around we go!





25th ==
  • Fight or flight?  Good discussion!  
  • Generally, there is no such thing as an "overreaction" to a situation.  Whenever something seems like an overreaction, it means that we are reacting to something in the past on top of what's happening in the present.  The extreme of this situation is traumatic stress, in which painful experiences in the past intrude in our perceptions of safety in the here and now.  


20th ==

  • This has been a long up run.  However, a monthly MACD cross indicates that we've probably (not definitely) entered a higher risk area of this market run.  
  • Carefully choose how you want to participate from this point forward.





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5th ==