29 MAR 2009, Sunday

1. Someone needs to speak to President Obama in like fashion.

28 MAR 2009, Saturday

1. Remember 1999 when Congress began making plans to spend the surpluses it expected would continue well into the new century. Economists then predicted that not only would the national debt be completely paid off in ten years, and Social Security easily funded, but there would be plenty left over for tax cuts, and for Congress to spend more on its favorite projects. Ahhh...the good old days. WTF happened? And more importantly why aren't we trying to get back to there as an "investment in our future"?

26 MAR 2009, Thursday

1. National Debt to double under Obama's plan...Good luck to our kids and grandkids!

25 MAR 2009, Wednesday

1. Paul Krugman describes the new bank bailout plan

23 MAR 2009, Monday

1. Thomas Paine returns with a call for a Second American Revolution ...Interesting video. Thomas Paine (January 29, 1737 - June 8, 1809) was a British pamphleteer, revolutionary, radical, inventor, and intellectual. He lived and worked in Britain until age 37, when he emigrated to the British American colonies, in time to participate in the American Revolution. His principal contribution was the powerful, widely-read pamphlet Common Sense (1776), advocating colonial America's independence from the Kingdom of Great Britain, and The American Crisis (1776-1783), a pro-revolutionary pamphlet series.
2. Hmmmm...so the Feds want private investors to step up to the plate and buy some of the toxic stuff from the banks. Heck, the Feds are even going to provide loans for the purchases and will even limit the potential losses. WOW! Uh...not so fast monkey boy. (By the way, this is basically the same plan unveiled in January). Who in their right mind will step into that bear trap when they know that CON-gress stands at the ready to tax away any potential gains as demonstrated by the recent AIG bonus situation. As I've asked before, when will the Government just shut up and stop interfering in the markets and get to its JOB of enforcing regulations and prosecuting fraud. We will have no certainty as long as this continues. And markets HATE uncertainty...proof is the past 18 month down swing.
3. CBO is predicting that over the next 10 years, deficits could be $2.3 trillion higher than the White House has admitted thus far. By 2019, the government will be paying $806 BILLION ANNUALLY IN INTEREST CHARGES ALONE — a cost that appears to exceed in real dollars the core Pentagon budget today. Ask your self the obvious, "Is this sustainable?"
4. Total Debt as % of GDP is still too big to be ignored...click to see. When it gives, and it must at some point, it will not be pretty.
5. Big day but (look at point 6 below too)...at true bear market bottoms nobody believes the bottom is anywhere in sight. Amazingly enough after less than two weeks everyone seems to think the bottom is in. At true bear market bottoms the public will never want to see a stock as long as they live. Bear market rallies are characterized by violent moves higher. The S&P rallied 7% today. There wasn't one single day during the last 5 year bull market where the S&P rallied that much. As a matter of fact, I don't think there was even one day where the market rallied 4% or more. 'V' bottoms are the hallmark of a bear market rally. True bull markets need to build a base. The next four year cycle low isn't due until late 2010 at the earliest. Just so you know, there were 13 counter trend rallies in the 1929 to 32 market. Trying to continually pick a bottom is what bankrupted many otherwise sophisticated investors. Just like bull markets go up much further than anyone expects, true secular bear markets fall much further than anyone can foresee. So you can decide if you think this is a new bull market. I was trying to get cheeky and play a bounce if SP500 got to low 600's but it appears that's not in the cards this go around. No problem...there are always future opportunities.
6. Biggest 1 Day % gains in History...look at the years they happened in....eye opening!

21 MAR 2009, Saturday

1. FROM Barron’s LAST WEEKEND, one portfolio manager, Felix Zulauf, made an articulate case that this will be a violent rally (900 on the S&P 500) followed by a move to new lows (450 on the S&P 500) with that ultimate bottom coming in 2011. This certainly is plausible and would anyone doubt it after what we saw in the last 12 months? Especially if this is a multi-year secular bear. However we believe at present the best one can get from this market is to try and dissect it and game plan for shorter horizons such as 1 to 3 months until more macro economic data allows for longer term forecasting comfort. This is a market where traders will continue to dominate and thrive (provided you try to capture return both on rallies as well as declines). For the foreseeable future Buy and Hold strategies should be kept on the shelf if one wished to make return.
2. I absolutely love this take on Executive Compensation!

20 MAR 2009, Friday

Formatting decision...I'll title posts by the date and and identify line items throughout the day via the numbered paragraph format. That way I can easily modify / add points throughout the day...and you can just remember when/where you last checked to look for any modifications.

1. EMPHASIS ON THE WHOLE FED THING YESTERDAY. It is a big, Big, BIG deal. You now live in a different America. Why? Simple. This is Banana Republic-type stuff! Printing money out of thin air at the central bank, only to turn around and buy debt securities issued by your Treasury, is the kind of practice you typically see in emerging market regimes. We're essentially monetizing our country's debt and deliberately devaluing our country's currency. We're also screwing over our foreign creditors (ie, China & Japan) — a dangerous path to tread considering we're a net debtor nation that's trying to borrow tens of billions of dollars a month to fund our massive deficits. When emerging markets try this, it often results in an implosion of the entire economy...think Argentina, Mexico, Russia (1998), Zimbabwe billionaires. Not a guarantee...but on thin ice...not safe...so, not safe.


2. Briefing.com article on SP500 bounces post bear markets Has a great chart of depth of bear markets and subsequent bull moves in multi year windows. Also, speaks a little to Price/Earnings ratios (current).
3. But, Ms Market seems to be happy!

Launching Blog!

Curiosity has finally killed this cat. I'm making an initial attempt into blogging. So let's get started! (Right click the following link and open it in a new window so you can read on while it plays in the background http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW4DPIBO5OU ). Why the stupid name? Mostly, because this will be markets associated...a little else sometimes but this is for me and reminds me that they go up, sideways, down...REPEAT. It's been down and now making a valiant effort at sideways for a possible upturn but it's really confused right now. Besides, the name could have been Up and Down...but there are other sites for that sort of stuff...LOL.

It should allow me to accomplish a few things via one centralized location:

1. Maintain a listing of links to useful charting, historical data references, economic and trader resources,
2. Maintain links for current daily & weekly SP500 charts (so you folks can stop saying "I can't find the SP500, where's the Dow***?"), and
3. Last but not least, allow me a way to provide running commentary, pictures, charts and/or links when I see something that might interest you...or not. And, it'll create archives for me to search old information, as necessary, to review my previous thoughts.

This should aid in reducing the lengthy pester emails. Instead, I'll just send you an email notifying you of a blog update, with the link, if I want to draw your attention to something. Then, you can choose what you want to do with it...delete it and forget it or just go to the blog then or later. For those times where I wouldn't have sent out an email but I found something that interested me, I may just make a post with that stuff...so check in once in awhile on your own if you like. Won't necessarily be a daily thing...but it may be. The posts will be there and roll over into the Archives every month it looks like.

Will be interesting to see how this works...or not! Let me know of any improvement / addition suggestions you may have via the comments or drop an email. Either way be sure to check back on occassion...I've got most of the links to sites up there but I may be adding some stuff over time.

***I really don't care about the Dow Jones Industrials as much since it is only 30 stocks and can be manipulated easier by "Da Boyz" than 500 stocks of the largest companies in America. When I talk about the stock market, I'm typically referring to the SP500 or the NASDAQ100.

NOW...to today's chart (Right click the following link to open it in a new window) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83448069221

Look at the bottom indicator panels...

1. Look how flipping high NYMO is. Coming down from 100's...look left and you'll see how short term overbought that is...pretty thin air.
2. NYA50R indicates that there is still some possible move up toward the 80's after some retracement...if we're still going up.
3. NYSI shows possible upside too.
4. Having said all that...we've risen 20% off of the lows in less than 10 trading days...and that rarely happens in market history ( http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/03/20-rally-in-under-2-weeks.html ). Not sustainable without some retracement...or is that it?
5. Additionally, with the Fed's crack pusher move into the Bond Market yesterday...I'd say these are definitely uncharted waters. When will the Government just shut the hell up and back away from the markets so they can get their footing. All this ham-handed meddling is just prolonging these troubled times.

When you're in a lifeboat surrounded by sharks, it wouldn't necessarily be smart to jump in the water just to get a closer look and maybe see what type of sharks they are. Waiting for the sharks to go elsewhere...I'm not going to be lunch right now!

Investor in me is on the sidelines...I was hoping for low 600's - high 500's in the SP500 which would have made going in somewhat easier but Mrs. Market didn't want to go all the way and instead reversed upward from 666 (spooky).

That's it for now!